Every season, more than a few players break the hearts of fantasy owners. Whether it’s from injuries (to themselves or the players around them), loss of playing time, or just diminished skills, these failures can absolutely bring our teams down. It doesn’t matter if they are “must-haves to sleep” or stallions established at the top of the rankings; If you count on them to produce and they fail, you will be disappointed. Some busts occur without warning, but others have obvious red flags that should be highlighted in the draft cheat sheets.
When considering busts, we’re not talking about obvious, injury-ridden options like Michael Thomas or someone who is at the lower echelons of their respective position. Those players won’t cost that much on draft day, so they can only hurt you so much. Rather, we take a risk by highlighting players who might They have explosive seasons, but they are much riskier than most fantasy owners believe. If you can get any of them at a sub-market value during your draft, by all means go for it, but it’s not smart to go for them.
MASTER YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2021 Cheat Sheet
Next, we’ll take a look at our 2021 boom or bust candidates and discuss why they are included in the list. All ADPs mentioned are courtesy of Fantasy Pros (standard punctuation format).
FANTASY STANDARD RATINGS 2021:
Field marshal | Running backwards | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kicker | Top 200
Team Fantasy Boom-or-Bust 2021
QB rise or fall
Jalen hurts, eagles (QB11 ADP)
Hurts is an exciting young quarterback with high-level fantasy potential due to his elite running ability. At best, Hurts joins Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray as candidates to rush 1,000 yards this year, in addition to adding another 3,000 yards through the air. Its advantage is undeniable. From week 14 to week 17 of last year, Hurts was the QB7. There is the case of its potential “boom”.
Now, let’s dive into why it is so likely to break. As of the date of this article, the Eagles coaching staff quiet He won’t fully commit to naming Hurts as the starting quarterback even though Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens are his competition. While we surely think he will win the starting job, Hurts completed just 52 percent of his passes last season. That’s downright awful. For your upside potential to be important, you have to stay in the field. If you don’t dramatically improve your passing acumen, you won’t be on the field long. It also doesn’t help that the new regime in Philadelphia doesn’t have a prior loyalty to Hurts, so it might be on a short leash.
Once again, he has a top-five lead, but the bench could be calling him by name early in the season, making him the riskiest pick among the top 12 quarterbacks.
2021 FANTASY SLEEPERS:
Field marshal | Running backwards | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Each team
Jonathan Taylor, Colts (RB8 ADP)
Taylor impressed as a rookie behind the Colts’ fantastic offensive line. It was the RB4 in the standard leagues and the RB6 in the PPR formats, quickly becoming one of the top 10 assets of the dynasty. With an RB1 roof, your ADP RB8 may feel a bit low. It could play out that way, but proceed with caution.
Marlon Mack (Achlles) returns to the depth chart after being a 1,000-yard runner in ’19. Plus, Nyheim Hines still ranks among the league’s elite players. If that’s not enough to worry you, add the injuries of Carson Wentz (foot) and All-Pro point guard Quenton Nelson (foot). Anthony Castonzo retired after last season, and his replacement is Eric Fisher who is coming off an Achilles injury. This will be the most unstable offensive line the Colts have put on the field since the Andrew Luck era.
Some have suggested that Wentz’s injury simply means more volume for Taylor. While this sounds logical, it may not happen. With a worse quarterback, like current favorite Jacob Eason, below center, the efficiency of the offense will be reduced. This leads to less time of possession, fewer chances to score, and fewer precise targets for running backs. The defenses will not respect the pass as much, which means that the boxes are crowded most of the time.
PPR FANTASY 2021 RATINGS:
Field marshal | Running backwards | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kicker | Top 200
Josh Jacobs, Raiders (RB17 ADP)
Jacobs has finished no worse than RB14 in his two-year career with the Raiders. Last season, he ranked third in the league in carries. If you’re still a ringer, you could wreck your current RB17 ADP.
However, the addition of Kenyan Drake spells bad news for Jacobs. While the ADP suggests that fancy homeowners realize this, Jacobs’s downfall could be more drastic than most think. With Drake succeeding as the principal in Arizona, he will have a not insignificant workload. His receiving profile is more impressive than Jacobs’, and he will likely be the top pass receiver of the two. Drake also ranked within the top four in red zone carries (56) a season ago. Jacobs had the most at 64, but with another capable red zone threat on the depth chart, we may see fewer carries on the goal line from Jacobs this year.
As things stand right now, the backfield could easily become a 1A / 1B approach, limiting the Jacobs ceiling.
FANTASY LEVELS 2021 AND STRATEGY DRAFT:
Field marshal | Running backwards | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST
Mike Evans, Buccaneers (WR13 ADP)
Evans has been a fantasy superstar from the moment he entered the league in 2014. He has produced seven straight 1,000-yard seasons and is always among the elite in touchdowns in the red zone.
However, recruiting him in WR13 is putting him on his highest ceiling. In 2021, Evans benefited greatly from the injury woes of Chris Godwin and OJ Howard (four and 12 games lost, respectively), and Antonio Brown did not emerge until the end of the season (season debut in Week 9). Still, he saw career lows in receptions / game (4.4) and receiving yards / game (62.9) He also relied heavily on touchdowns for his fantasy production (44.8 percent of total fantasy points were from touchdowns) . In six games last year, he caught three or fewer receptions, and in three contests, he had less than 11 yards.
As mentioned, Godwin, Brown should be ready to start in Week 1, and Howard will likely follow shortly after. With all that said, there’s a good chance Evans will drop to a low-end WR2 or even a WR3.
FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY:
Snake Project | Auction | Best Ball | Dynasty / Guardian
Adam Thielen, Vikings (WR17 ADP)
Thielen emerged from here to be a fantasy star in recent seasons. Just last year, he finished as WR7 in standard formats with 925 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns.
But regression is likely to come. Thielen will enter the season at the age of 31, and Justin Jefferson will be WR1 from the start (assuming his AC joint sprain is nothing more serious).
Since touchdowns are difficult to project, you don’t want to select Thielen simply based on last year’s numbers. Touchdowns accounted for 46.6 percent of his total fantasy points. The volume that passes it should Falling into the ideal world of head coach Mike Zimmer, and with TE Irv Smith Jr. poised to take a step toward bigger goal sharing, it’s hard to count on Thielen again for an extreme number of goals.
FANTASY AUCTION VALUES 2021 (Standard and PPR):
Field marshal | Running backwards | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kicker | Monkey
Will Fuller, Dolphins (WR40 ADP)
Fuller has been a boom-bust candidate his entire career. He’s shown flashes of WR1 on the upside, but with a combination of injuries and a lack of consistency, he hasn’t been a reliable option. Do you know who looks like a Fuller clone? His own new teammate, Jaylen Waddle. Is there really room on the field for two players with almost identical profiles? Both are dynamic, high-game machines that don’t have impressive target percentage.
On your WR40 ADP, you might feel good about selecting it, especially if it’s your WR4, but come in with the foreknowledge that it will leave you feeling cheated every two weeks (especially Week 1, when it will be serving the last game of its suspension from six PED sets). In a Miami offense with a deep receiving corps and an untested quarterback, Fuller is riskier than ever.
FANTASY 2021 CONSISTENCY RATINGS:
Field marshal | Running backwards | Wide receiver | Hard ending
Dallas Goedert, Aguilas (TE7 ADP)
Goedert’s ADP has risen rapidly along with his offseason hype. This has been mainly due to the assumption that Zach Ertz would be traded, but now it seems unlikely.
Last season, Ertz outscored Goedert, though only by seven. Goedert had 10 more receptions, 189 more yards, and two more TDs, but Ertz probably won’t completely drop out of the rotation if he’s on the Week 1 roster. If Goedert can’t dominate the snap share, how can we justify your inclusion in the top 10 in the position? And, as mentioned above, quarterback plays feel terribly shaky in Philadelphia.
Defense / Boom-or-Bust Special Teams
Santos (D / ST10 ADP)
New Orleans defense / special teams made the top seven in fantasy a season ago, but there’s a good chance you’ll see a drop in fantasy production, even if you play well.
It all has to do with the Saints offense. Can we go ahead and assume the Saints offense will be less efficient with Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston running the show for 16 games? A less efficient offense means a few things for a defense / special teams: worse position on the field (more points given), fewer advances (fewer opportunities for quick passes, interceptions), more fatigue (more important plays allowed) and fewer kickoffs. (less chance of returning touchdowns). Do those factors sound like a good recipe for fantasy success? You can decide.