I feel that the discussion of where we will go next, among those who really know what they are talking about, is centered around a step-by-step approach that responsibly balances both medical security and the reopening of our economy.
My latest post directed you to The editorial by David Katz which generally outlined such an approach.
The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) now has a longer document written by a number of experts, led by former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb.
Their plan has three key stages:
- Slow down the spread – This is essentially where we are in the various blocs of the nation. “These measures will need to be put in place in every state until transmission slows measurably and health infrastructure can be expanded to safely manage the epidemic and care for the sick.”
- State-by-state reopening – “Individual states can move to Phase II when they are able to safely diagnose, treat and isolate cases of COVID-19 and their contacts.”
- Removal of restrictions on physical distancing and other phase II measures – “May be lifted when safe and effective tools are available to mitigate the risk of COVID-19, including extensive surveillance, therapies that can save patients with significant illness or prevent serious diseases in those most at risk, or a safe and effective vaccine “.
I will suggest that we are so far behind the curve in making testing readily available and providing healthcare workers with their equipment needs, that it will take months, not weeks, before “transmission slows significantly and healthcare infrastructure can scale. up to managing the epidemic safely and taking care of the sick “.
But I will also suggest that we won’t be able to get back to something like normal until we have a vaccine, mass-produce it, and make it available to the general population. Hearing experts tell us that all of this is likely not going to happen for a year or two, which makes it necessary to reach agreement on what phase two will look like and when we can move on to it.