I have said this before, but I think this betting market offers very good value for those who want to risk their money because LAB does not get an absolute majority. The way the market is defined, Starmer’s party would need to win 326 seats, exactly 122 more than it won in the last general election.
This is a great question and I think people are underestimating the Tory vote because many former Tory voters simply say they don’t know when asked about voting intention. According to the latest Opninium poll, only 44% of GE2019 CON voters stay with the party, but I would expect this proportion to be much higher when it comes to voting.
Also, LAB does not need to make 122 profits to form a government. What has to happen is that the Tories lose their effective majority, which happens with 47 seats lost. As long as SF MPs in Northern Ireland do not take their seats, the target will be lower.
A big factor is likely to be LD gains on the blue wall. What we’re not seeing is a huge shift from 2019 Conservative voters to LAB.
My only bet here is that LAB will not get an overall majority as defined in the bet.