COP26 commitments are not enough to avoid the climate crisis, the report notes

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The Climate Action Tracker report found that with current commitments, emissions will still be double those needed for the 2030 targets.

Despite a series of commitments made by world leaders a COP26 in Glasgow in the past 10 days to stop the climate crisis in its tracks, the world is headed for a temperature rise of at least 2.4 degrees Celsius, according to an independent analysis.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT), which assesses the government’s climate action against the Paris Agreement’s goal of blocking global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, has taken a hard hit on many commitments promises taken so far at COP26 saying they are not enough.

According to the CAT analysis, the latest climate action commitments made in Glasgow, including Irish ones, and other pledges will still see emissions rise to about double the amount needed by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The analysis also found that stalled momentum by leaders and governments over their short-term targets has narrowed the 2030 emissions gap – between the cuts needed to stay within 1.5 degrees and those offered by governments – only since 15% to 17% in the last year. The warming predicted by existing policies, rather than new proposals, stands at 2.7 degrees Celsius.

“The vast majority of actions and goals for 2030 are inconsistent with the net-zero goals,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, a partner organization of CAT. “There is a nearly one degree gap between the government’s current policies and their zero goals.”

“Credibility gap”

Since the Climate Leaders Summit hosted by US President Joe Biden in April, CAT said that commitment-based temperature estimates, including all nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and other binding long-term targets, have fallen 0.3 to 2.1 degrees Celsius.

This is largely due to the inclusion of the US and China’s new net zero targets by 2050 and 2060 respectively, which have been formalized in their long-term strategies submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Treaty underlying the COP26.

“It’s very fine for leaders to claim that they have a net zero goal, but if they have no plans on how to get there and their 2030 goals are as low as many of them, then frankly these net zero goals are just words for one. real climate action. Glasgow has a serious credibility gap, “said Hare.

Professor Niklas Höhne, founder of the NewClimate Institute in Cologne, added that while the wave of zero-net targets seems like “big news,” there is still a lot to worry about.

He said that if the huge gap cannot be narrowed by COP26, governments must agree to return for COP27 with “new and stronger” goals. “If we wait another five years and only discuss the commitments for 2035, the limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius could be lost.”

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