This was always the essential match in the round of 16 of Euro 2021. When England and Germany meet, nothing is saved. And in this pure football rivalry born of high-stakes matches in the main tournaments, Tuesday’s Euro 2021 knockout match has important implications.
A loss would represent a failure for both nations. But the winner will have a great chance of reaching the final of the tournament with less heralded (but no less dangerous) opponents on the horizon: Sweden / Ukraine in the quarters and then Denmark / Czech Republic in the semi-final stage.
England are considered to have the most talented team in their history, and they hope to tap into that potential and win their first European Championship. This could be your best chance since hosting the tournament in 1996: This round of 16 match, the semi-finals and the final of the tournament will take place on your home ground at Wembley Stadium in London.
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Germany won the European Championship three times, but the last was in 1996, when the Germans defeated England at Wembley on their way to the title. They enter this round of 16 match with lots of question marks from an erratic group stage and a pathetic head coach (Joachim Low leaves after the tournament). But they also have a long-standing reputation for standing up to win trophies when others have discarded them.
That never-dying German spirit has intimidated many opponents in the past and will surely come into play on Tuesday, especially with England bearing the brunt of the ‘favorite’ designation and with good reason. In addition to playing at home, Gareth Southgate’s team did not concede a single goal in their group games. But he wasn’t terribly convincing in his performances either, scoring only two goals.
Mix all of those ingredients together with the huge crowd of 40,000 expected at Wembley, and you’ve got the makings of a classic.
How to watch England-Germany in the USA
- Date: Tuesday June 29
- Hour: 12 pm ET
- Television channel: ESPN
- Spanish television: Univision, TUDN
- Transmission: fuboTV, ESPN App, TUDN.tv
ESPN will broadcast England vs. Germany in English, with Univision and TUDN providing coverage in Spanish. Both networks are available to broadcast on fuboTV (7-day free trial).
How will Germany play?
The only change Low has made from his starting 3-4-3 lineup during the group stage has been to the top three. He brought in Leroy Sane for Thomas Muller in the third group match against Hungary.
If Low hopes to play the counterattack against England, the speedy Timo Werner could be the best option at the top (and he’s fresh). That thinking could also play a role in the Muller / Sane decision, with Muller potentially proving to be a better option off the bench to help manage the game.
England have played different formations under Southgate and various English media are projecting that Southgate will counter Germany’s 3-4-3 with the same formation, featuring a third central defender.
But there is no consensus on the position of the right back: will Kieran Trippier, Reece James or Bukayo Saka be on the right? On the left it would appear that Luke Shaw will beat Ben Chilwell, who has been forced to self-isolate himself in recent days for being in close contact with a positive case of COVID-19 (Billy Gilmour from Scotland). English midfielder Mason Mount has been in the same boat as Chilwell and has not trained regularly. For that reason, it would be a risk to see him thrown into this game.
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Many want to see Jadon Sancho in the mix given his experience against German players during his time with his club’s team, Borussia Dortmund in Germany. But he’s only played six minutes so far and if he shows up, it’s probably from the bench.
England vs. Germany: odds and predictions
Southgate has done his best to downplay it, but this English side is under pressure and the weight of expectations, the crowd and the history of failures will make for a fascinating dynamic that the Germans should definitely play in.
Germany will be happy to sit back and let England have the initiative and the ball. In that scenario, Low’s men will look to jump with moments of high pressure and lightning-fast counterattacks. German attackers Kai Havertz and Timo Werner, who play for Chelsea FC in London, have the skills to shine in that kind of game.
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England don’t have much of an advantage at home either – they haven’t beaten Germany at Wembley in their last seven games there. Given the tight, tense and unsure of the English team we’ve seen in the group stage, this is not a place you want to bet against Germany.
One of these days, England wants to “take him home.” But until the national team has shown that it has overcome its many complexes and is comfortable strutting among Europe’s elite, it will not be chosen in this pre-match forecast.
Prediction: England 1, Germany 3
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- England win (90 minutes): +138
- England to advance: -130
- Draw (90 minutes): +230
- Germany win (90 minutes): +210
- Germany to advance: +110
- Germany win and both teams to score: +500
- Germany -0.25 Asian Handicap: +165
- Germany +0.25 Asian Handicap: -124
- More than 2.5 total goals: +108
- Total possession of the ball by Germany below 51.5%: +120