How are the betting lines established? (Deleted scenes from gambling and sports media) – News Block

Last month, I wrote a story for Global Sport Matters about the impact legalizing sports betting in the United States is having on sports media and sports journalism.

As always, he had far more material than would fit into the story. This is one of the great uses of blogs in journalism, one started in my world by my friend Matt Vautourwho saw his blog as a newspaper version of the director’s commentary and parts of deleted scenes from a DVD.

So in that spirit…

Have you ever wondered how betting lines are actually set?

teddy greensteinSenior Editor at Points Bet, explained that process:

It’s a combination of human beings who are literally sitting around debating what they think the line will be. Take, for example, (on December 20) the Bears-Vikings game. So the line opened up with the Vikings favored by 3 1/2. So you have human beings who were sitting around saying that the Vikings, you know, are coming off this brutal loss. The Bears have lost a ton of games in a row, but Justin Fields is doing a little better. Bears are home, how much is home field worth? How will the weather be? Who is injured, who is playing?

And then the line adjusts during the week. Like, Matt Nagy announced that a bunch of coordinators had COVID. Maybe that tilts him a little more toward the Vikings. Dalvin Cook is healthier than ever.

So it’s a constant adjustment based really on two things. Where does the “handle” go, the weight of money. And where are they, all those traders, they’re odds makers, but at Points Bet, and I think in the industry, they’re called traders, where they think the sharpest, the smartest punters out there. The guys who are going to bet they know $10,000 on game day where they think it’s going to go.

This is what is also fascinating about sports betting. For last year’s Super Bowl, the line in the Chiefs Bucs’ game was 3, 3 1/2. The Chiefs were the favorites, I’m pretty sure ours ended up being 3 1/2. But we were taking like 85% of the Chiefs’ money. So I always would have thought, oh, that means if 85% of the money is on the Chiefs, then you adjust the line, then make the Chiefs minus 4 or 4 1/2 so you can get some money back.

But what I’ve learned is that our traders aren’t really looking for 50/50. We are looking to have a point spread that is the most profitable for Points Bet, just like any other book.

So obviously our merchants felt no, no, no, no, no. Tampa Bay has good value here, and we don’t want to be the only book where the Chiefs give 4, because then all these people will rush at us with Tampa Bay plus 4 and (the) Tampa Bay money line. and then we could have a great responsibility.

So it’s a combination of what’s going on in the industry, what’s going on in terms of injuries and weather, and those kinds of factors. And then what they anticipate is going to happen to our highest rollers.

Finally, Dr. Michael Mirer outlined the fundamental difference between breaking news for a traditional news organization and a sports book.

“If you’re working for a sports book, your job is to report news on the Schefter model or the Woj Bomb model. Fundamentally, in that sense, you’re doing one aspect of traditional journalism, but you’re really only serving a specific one.” . audience segment So, breaking the news that Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the COVID protocols, if you’re the writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, yes, you know that’s going to help the players, but also this is a city that cares about that. team and therefore that news is useful, isn’t it? So the ethical choice at that point is of course to spread that story, even if you know that the gambling part is part of the decision to spread that story.

“If you’re writing for a sports book, your understanding of your audience is that this is entirely because the lines will move. By breaking this news, I’m going to move the lines. So I’m producing that news for an audience.” . whose entire search for actionable information”.