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How close are the Brewers to a wild card spot? Let’s take a closer look at Milwaukee in the National League standings

As of September 16, the Milwaukee Brewers have 1½ comeback games from the nearest playoff spot, though it’s actually 2½ since Milwaukee doesn’t have a tiebreaker advantage over its closest competitor, the San Diego Padres.

The Brewers are firmly on the verge of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017, but they’ve won five of seven, and the Padres haven’t been breaking it either.

The Brewers would surely prefer to win the NL Central title, but they are 7 1/2 games behind St. Lou. That part is not going to happen.

If the Brewers earn the third wild-card spot, they will likely face the NL Central champion Cardinals in a best-of-three game in St. Louis. Buckle up for that.

If the Brewers can move up to the second wild card spot, they would face the first wild card winner, either Atlanta or the New York Mets, in a best-of-three series. Facing Atlanta would represent a 2021 playoff rematch.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are taking over the top spot in the playoffs, and the winner of the NL East will likely join them to earn a first-round bye.

Here’s where the Brewers stand relative to the other teams fighting for the final NL playoff spots:

Standings (through September 15 games)

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTER

NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD

(three teams earn playoff berths)

  • Atlanta 88-55 (8 games ahead of second place, 12 ahead of the Brewers)

  • Philadelphia 80-63 (2½ games ahead of the Padres, 4 games ahead of the Brewers)

  • San Diego 78-66 (1½ games ahead of the Brewers)

  • Milwaukee 76-67

Milwaukee Brewers (76-67)

Games behind in Central:

Games behind the third wild card:

Games behind the second wild card: 4

Remaining matches against winning teams: 8

Remaining games on the road: 4

Remaining home games: fifteen

What is the Brewers’ magic number to secure a playoff spot?

Technically, they don’t have one; the magic numbers apply to the team that is in the lead. The Brewers are not. But along the same lines the Brewers need 21 results to do well in his battle with the San Diego Padres (Brewers wins or Padres losses) and 24 in his battle with the Phillies (Brewers wins or Phillies losses) to pass them for a playoff spot.

What is the Brewers’ elimination number?

They are 16 (in the battle with the Phillies) and 18 (with San Diego).

What if the Brewers tie with the Phillies or Padres?

The Brewers do not have a tiebreaker with either team and, without Game 163, would miss the playoffs if a tied record for last playoff spot were reached. The Brewers would also be the odd team in a three-way tie.

The Brewers missed the tiebreaker due to the head-to-head season series, losing to San Diego, 4-3, and Philadelphia, 4-2.

What are the Brewers’ playoff odds?

fan charts gives the Brewers a 27.1% chance of making the playoffs, and BaseballReference gives them a 33.5% chance (until the September 15 games).

San Diego Padres (78-66)

Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11) pitches in the first inning on July 27, 2022 against the Tigers at Comerica Park.

Games behind the Phillies for the second wild card:

Games ahead of the Brewers:

Remaining matches against winning teams: 9

Remaining games on the road: 6

Remaining home games: 12

Josh Hader Watch: Former Brewers reliever showing his return to form?

It’s a small sample, but the former Brewers closer pitched a third straight scoreless appearance and secured a big save in a 2-0 win over the Mariners on Sept. 13.

The former Brewers closer has appeared in just 12 games for San Diego and has allowed 13 earned runs in 9⅔ innings, but now has two saves with his new team. He struck out three of the four batters he faced in his last outing.

  • 3 at Arizona (68-75)

  • 3 vs. St. Louis (84-60)

  • 3 in Colorado (62-81)

  • 3 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (98-44)

  • 3 vs. Chicago White Sox (74-70)

  • 3 vs. San Francisco (69-74)

Philadelphia Phillies (80-63)

August 6, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos (8) runs to first base after hitting a single against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Games ahead of the Padres for the second wild card:

Games ahead of the Brewers: 4

Remaining matches against winning teams: 12

Remaining games on the road: 12

Remaining home games: 7

The Phillies end up on a long road trip, but…

In theory, the Phillies have a tough end to the season with 10 road games, closing with three against AL West heavyweight Houston, though the team with the best record in the AL probably doesn’t need to work hard. at the end of the season.

You can contact JR Radcliffe at (262) 361-9141 or jradcliffe@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JRRadcliffe.

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This article originally appeared on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Where are the Brewers in the NL wild card standings, MLB playoff odds?


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