TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s exports probably posted their biggest monthly increase in four decades in May, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, but the flattering milestone largely reflected a rebound in shipments from the fall fueled by the US pandemic. last year.
Globally, policymakers are closely monitoring the extent of the underlying demand recovery as COVID-19 vaccines have improved economic conditions in some key economies.
A marked recovery in Japan’s exports and production due to rising global demand has helped its economy offset lackluster conditions in the country, after the government recently extended emergency coronavirus restrictions in Tokyo and other areas. important.
Key data next week includes machinery orders and consumer prices, as well as a Bank of Japan policy meeting.
Exports likely soared 51.3% in May compared to the same month a year earlier, the survey of 17 economists showed.
That would mark the steepest monthly increase since April 1980, when shipments jumped 51.4%, said a finance ministry official. The annual rebound in exports largely reflected the pull-back effect of the 28.3% drop in May 2020.
Imports were forecast to increase 26.6% year-on-year in May, resulting in a trade deficit of 91.2 billion yen ($ 833.7 million).
“Exports in May … probably posted a bigger gain than the previous month,” said Kenta Maruyama, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ (NYSE 🙂 Research and Consulting.
“On a seasonally adjusted (month-to-month) basis, they probably declined slightly, although overall demand for capital investment remains high.”
The Finance Ministry announces trade data at 8:50 am Wednesday (2350 GMT Tuesday).
Basic machinery order data, which excludes ships and electrical services, is also scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
The survey showed that basic machinery orders in April were likely up 8.0% year-on-year and up 2.7% from the previous month.
The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes petroleum products but excludes volatile fresh food prices, is expected to have risen 0.1% in May compared to the same month a year earlier, according to the Reuters poll.
That would mark the first month of year-on-year price growth since March of last year.
The survey also showed that the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at minus 0.1% and the 10-year Japanese government debt yield target at around 0% at its 17-17 policy meeting. to June 18.
($ 1 = 109.3900 yen)
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