Nathan’s 2021 hot dog eating contest has been one of the most predictable events on the sports calendar for the past 14 years.
Each year challengers line up to target Joey Chestnut. He has gone home with a win 13 times. He’s only gone home a loser once.
Yes, the contest is far from the big chestnut-Takeru Kobayashi rivalry days of the mid-2000s. Still, there is buzz surrounding the event every year, especially for bettors who know that trusting Chestnut is a practically foolproof plan to earn some extra money.
That said, this year the women’s contest is more open than ever. Miki Sudo, who won the women’s division of the hot dog eating contest seven times in a row, will not participate in the 2021 event. As such, a new winner will step up.
Will she be the favorite, Michelle Lesco, or will one of the other competitors deny her a chance to win her first Nathan title? That will be the most important question for bettors to answer.
What other bets can you make for the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest? Here are the best bets and prop bets available for the 4th of July tradition with the Sporting News selection for the event in bold.
MORE: Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2021 TV Show, Start Time, Odds, More
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2021 Odds
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Will Joey Chestnut win Nathan’s 2021 hot dog eating contest?
You just can’t cast Joey Chestnut at an event he’s had for the last 14 years. Since 2007, Chestnut has won the hot dog eating contest 13 times in 14 attempts. His only loss came in 2015 when Matt Stonie dethroned him by eating 62 hot dogs compared to Chestnut’s 60.
That was an aberration. Since then, Chestnut has broken his own world record three times, including last year when he ate a whopping 75 hot dogs. Runner-up Darron Breeden ate just 42.
Chestnut may face more competition with the less restricted COVID event in 2021, but he’s still the man to beat. Choosing against him to win would be foolish, but this bet isn’t all that attractive considering the extremely short odds Chestnut faces before the contest. Simply put, it will be difficult to make a significant profit on this bit without taking even greater risk.
Who will win the Nathan’s 2021 women’s hot dog food contest?
- Michelle Lesco (-1000)
- Any other participant (+500)
Since Miki Sudo is not participating in the 2021 hot dog eating contest, the women’s division is more open than ever. In 2019, Michelle Lesco finished second with 26.5 hot dogs to Sudo’s 31. Can you repeat your success in 2021? It’s hard to measure considering it skipped last year’s contest, but it’s ranked No. 9 competitive theater in the world by Eat in the big leagues, and the highest ranked woman outside of Sudo.
Maybe Sarah Rodriguez or Larell Marie Mele can challenge Lesco, but Rodriguez didn’t compete in the contest last year, while Mele didn’t even reach half of Sudo’s total of 48.5 hot dogs. Lesco is worth trusting despite the slim odds.
How many hot dogs will Joey Chestnut eat?
- Over 73.5 (-230)
- Less than 73.5 (+165)
The books are very confident that Chestnut will be at least one hot dog away from his world record of 75, but this number carries a bit of risk.
Chestnut has only passed the 73.5 hot dog mark in two of his last five outings. That makes the number 73.5 a bit tricky.
|Year||Hot dogs eat|
* Denotes record performance
However, the slope above appears to be correct.
Chestnut will be motivated to set another world record. After all, his 75th bounce came in front of no audience, as the contest was held indoors with no spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic last year. He will look to put on a show for those who show up.
The other positive aspect of the chestnut possibilities is the weather. Yes, believe it or not, that can have an impact on diners. If it’s very hot, diners tend not to be able to eat as much. Case and point, in 2010, Chestnut recorded just 54 hot dogs eaten, the lowest total of his career in a win. The temperature that day was 97 degrees.
It was also 90 degrees in 2019 when he failed to set a world record for the first time since his defeat in 2015. In 2020, the event was indoors and he bounced accordingly.
So what’s the forecast for the 4th of July in Brooklyn this year? The maximum is projected to be 76 degrees. That’s good eating weather, so between your motivation to set a record in front of a crowd and the weather looking solid, going with the finish seems like the best bet.
If you’re concerned that Chestnut doesn’t have a lot of competition with other eaters, don’t be. It will continue to compete against itself.