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Precious Metals and Energy: Investing.com Weekly Analysis and Calendar

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Precious Metals and Energy: Investing.com Weekly Analysis and Calendar
© Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com – There is a new product in town. It’s called “patience.” And traders need a lot of things when faced with increasingly puzzling things like the economy, job recovery from the pandemic, inflation, and the Fed’s phasing out and rate hikes (whenever that happens).

Gold traders, particularly those trying to get back to the high $ 1,900 levels and the more formidable $ 2,000 levels, probably need this product more than the rest, given the daily chaos these items cause on their price aspirations.

Without patience, other basic resources such as “mistrust”, “panic” and “fear” are likely to be needed to lead gold investors to a new place, although it is true that these are not as noble as patience. .

Florian Grummes, author of the Gold Optix blog, says that only when there is mistrust, or panic and fear to some extent, will there be new “significant and contrary entry opportunities” in the yellow metal.

“While the pullback of the past few days has certainly led to a decline in euphoria, the general consensus remains clearly in favor of a further increase in gold prices,” says Grummes.

He points out that markets rarely move straight up. “Rather, they have to use twists and turns to ensure that the masses do not fully participate in the price increases.”

“Other than that, patience is a virtue,” he adds.

Grummes may seem like you have the perfect remedy for today’s gold disease. However, there is a problem: he wrote this blog a year ago.

This iteration of their Gold Optix was released on May 28, 2020.

However, the market conditions you cite make this blog look like it could have been written for today.

This proves one thing: markets, including gold, work in cycles.

By Thursday, gold had fallen from the $ 1,900 position it had held since the previous week, based on data showing the United States is at its lowest since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in mid-March 2020. .

The notion of a rapid labor market recovery sent the US and higher instead, as Comex futures fell to a Thursday low of $ 1,866.85 while spot gold touched a $ nadir. 1,865.49.

But less than 24 hours later, the job landscape in the United States looked quite different.

Labor Department data for the entire month of May showed that the United States added just 559,000 new jobs, some 115,000 below economists’ forecasts, although the monthly unemployment rate fell three percentage points to 5.8 %. This suggested that job recovery still had a way to go.

Immediately, the talking heads of the research houses began to defend the theory that the Federal Reserve will not be anywhere close to raising interest rates or reducing the $ 120 billion in bonds and other assets that it had been buying every month since March 2020 to support the economy.

Aside from the disintegration of the tapering talks, the incessant talk about inflation, which now sounds almost like gibberish due to the Fed’s indifference to the whole thing, has also messed with the objectives of the bulls of the world. gold back to $ 1,900.

All other things being equal, a higher inflationary environment is good for gold, which is considered the best store of value in times of both financial and political trouble.

In recent months, however, rivals in gold, the dollar, and bond yields have instead rallied on signs of rising inflation, as investors bet the Fed will raise rates faster by planned, something you’ve sworn against.

The Fed acknowledges price pressures arising from bottlenecks in US supply chains struggling to keep up with demand in an economy reopening after months of suppression of the pandemic.

But the Federal Open Market Committee that makes policy for the central bank, led by President Jerome Powell, insists these inflationary pressures are “transitory” and will wear off as the economy fully recovers from the pandemic.

The taper versus transition debate has pretty much decided the fate of gold since the beginning of the year, with more power for the former so far.

It remains to be seen if the May Nonfarm Payrolls will radically change this in the coming weeks.

“The movement in real yields crushed gold prices for most of the week. But the May non-farm payroll report showed markets that the April report was no fluke, “said Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA.

Moya said any rate tightening or cutting by the Fed will likely have to wait until the central bank’s annual summer convention in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which serves as the holy grail of its monetary policy.

“Much of the bearish stance before the non-farm failure should be undone as the Fed will now be ready to talk about the downsizing,” Moya said, reinforcing the new notion.

Until then, patience is the commodity the gold crowd needs to invest in, except that alternative resources will be mistrust, panic, and fear.

In the case of oil, U.S. crude prices set the week at their highest level since 2018, as producer supply discipline and recovery in demand offset concerns about an erratic rollout of oil. COVID-19 vaccine worldwide.

Also fueling oil this week was a slowdown in talks between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program, which lowered expectations of a return to the Iranian oil market not sanctioned by the United States.

Gold price and market overview

The New York Comex made a final trade of $ 1,894 before the weekend, after closing Friday’s trade up $ 18.70, or 1%, at $ 1,892 an ounce. In the week, it fell 0.7%.

The rise in gold, reflecting real-time bullion trading, closed Friday’s trade at $ 1,891.12, an increase of $ 20.34 or 1.1%. In the week, it fell 0.7%.

Traders and fund managers sometimes decide the direction of gold by looking at the spot price, which reflects the bullion for fast delivery, rather than the futures.

Oil Market Summary and Price Summary

, the benchmark US oil index, made a final trade of $ 69.41 before the weekend, after closing Friday’s trade up 81 cents, or 1.2%, at $ 69.62.

During the week, WTI was up almost 5%, after May’s rally of 4.3%.

, which serves as the global benchmark for oil, traded before the weekend of $ 71.63 after closing Friday’s trade up 58 cents, or 0.8%, at $ 71.89.

For the week, Brent rose 3.4% after May’s 3.7% gain.

Energy markets calendar ahead

Monday June 7

Cushing Private Reserve Estimates

Tuesday June 8

weekly report on oil reserves.

Wednesday June 9

EIA weekly report on

EIA weekly report on

EIA weekly report on

Thursday June 10

EIA weekly report on {{ecl-386 || natural gas storage}

Friday June 11

Baker Hughes Weekly Survey of

Disclaimer: Barani Krishnan does not occupy a position in the commodities and securities that he writes about.

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