Trump leads Biden by 11 points in potential 2024 matchup – HotAir


A new Des Moines Register / Mediacom Iowa poll has some bad news for Joe Biden. In a hypothetical match between Trump and Biden in 2024, Trump is the favorite by eleven points. The real question should be whether or not one of the two men will race in 2024.

Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have indicated they will race in 2024. Biden even told reporters in March during his first press conference that he plans to run for re-election but it was only two months into his term and what would he say at that point? Biden said: “The answer is yes, my plan is to run for re-election. That’s my expectation. ”Since then his approval with the voters has plummeted. There’s a lot of buyer remorse out there.

Trump remains popular with Republican voters. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by eight percentage points over Biden, from 53% to 45%. Trump hasn’t left the stage since Biden was sworn in as president and he sure looks like he’s seriously considering another run. Biden’s approval with Iowa voters it is at its lowest level since taking office.

In the new poll, 51 percent of prospective Iowa voters in the 2024 election would vote for Trump, a Republican, while 40 percent say they would vote for Biden, a Democrat. Another 4% say they would not vote for either candidate and 5% are unsure. For Trump, the opposite is true. Iowa voters view him more favorably now than when he was president.

Likely voters in the 2024 election were asked, “If you voted today for the president of the United States and the candidates were Donald Trump for the Republicans and Joe Biden for the Democrats, who would you vote for?”

Trump’s lead in 2024 among prospective Iowa voters appears to be driven by support from independents.

Biden gets the support of 95% of Democrats, slightly better than the 91% Trump earns among Republicans. But the independents favor Trump by 8 percentage points, from 45% to 37%.

“Trump won Iowa convincingly in 2020, and that is reflected in this data,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.

The poll was conducted with probable voters which is traditionally more reliable than one with registered voters. The really bad news here for Biden is that the independents are heavily favoring Trump over Biden at this point. Biden has lost the support of independent voters at an astonishing rate since taking office. Selzer interviewed 810 Iowa voters, of whom 658 were identified as probable voters. The survey took place between 7 and 10 November. There is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%, with questions asked of likely voters with a margin of error of 3.8%.

Here’s the kicker, though: While the poll looks good for Trump, the conclusion that this is a sure thing for Trump if he decides to run isn’t so clear. There is room for support for another GOP candidate. The majority of Republican voters in the poll put the party on Trump. “61% say they are more aligned with the party than 26% who say they are more aligned with Trump. The margin of error for that question is plus or minus 6 percentage points.” This includes the two groups that have strongly supported Trump in the past, the rural Iowans and the evangelical Iowans. So, Selzer thinks he’s gone the open door for other Republicans interested in racing.

“If I could choose between Gov. (Ron) DeSantis or Donald Trump, this would be a difficult decision for me,” said Franklin Troy Hommer, interviewed by Marion County and politically independent. “But if you are telling me that my two choices are Joe Biden or Donald Trump, I choose Donald Trump.”

The status of Iowa’s first Republican caucus means potential presidential candidates court Iowa voters to test the water before making a decision whether to run or not. For example, both DeSantis and Mike Pence recently traveled to Iowa. They are the two Republicans at the top of the list of those likely to run in 2024. Tom Cotton was also there recently, appearing with Senator Chuck Grassley. Everyone knows the drill. Trump was in Iowa last month. He held a rally that drew thousands of people to the Iowa State Fairgrounds. Anyone think Joe Biden attracts that kind of crazy?

It is very early to talk about 2024 and neither have officially announced their decisions. What it likely does is signal a strong demonstration for Republican candidates in the midterm elections. Biden is mired in one crisis after another. It inspires no confidence that you can handle any of them, be it the pandemic, inflation and supply chains or the porous southern border. Biden is out of his mind and unwilling to acknowledge him or change course on any decision. His withdrawal from Afghanistan also shows that he is not to be trusted. He is not a man of his word. We still don’t have real numbers of how many Americans, green card holders and Afghan aides are left behind.

Biden hasn’t returned to Iowa since he campaigned there in 2020. Jill Biden traveled there, though. As I said, it is still very early to draw firm conclusions. This poll verifies what we are seeing nationwide, that Biden is not popular at all and his touted ability to bring the United States back to “normal” has failed miserably.


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