So far, voter turnout has not declined in the democratic areas of Virginia as the state is on track to break its government turnout record.
Democratic turnout hasn’t declined in Virginia (so far)
Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report tweeted:
Based on local turnout reports, VA is on track to beat 3 million votes, which would surpass the government record of 2.6 million set in 2017.
It is unclear which side it benefits from, but this is not a scenario where voter turnout in the blue areas is plummeting. #VAGOV
– Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021
Every report I have seen has a high turnout in democratic territories. Fairfax with a 50% turnout which is 1/8 of the states population and a democratic stronghold.
– Enough (@ ehartman1975) November 2, 2021
The Virginia election media theory may not be true
The media working theory on this election was that Biden’s low approval rate combined with Republican enthusiasm would mean Democrats stay home while Republicans show up to vote and Youngkin wins.
High turnout in democratic areas state is bad for Glenn Youngkin. Republicans need low Democratic turnout, especially in the northern part of the state, to have a chance of a close victory.
Since there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia, it is logical to assume that breaking a turnout record will benefit Democrats, but it is too early to draw any conclusions.
It is possible that Youngkin could win an election with a high turnout, but that was not the scenario he was hoping for in his campaign.
The Democrats could get their constituents out, and if the Democrats showed up to a reasonable extent, Terry McAuliffe’s odds of winning would only be helped.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and Congressional Correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a BA in Political Science. His undergraduate work has focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Professional awards and registrations
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and the American Political Science Association