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US Natural Gas Rises As Forecasts Project Warmer Weather

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US Natural Gas Rises As Forecasts Project Warmer Weather

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US natural gas futures rose on Monday, as forecasts forecasted warmer weather during the

coming weeks than previously expected, which will likely drive demand for refrigeration.

The prior month’s gas futures were up 12 cents, or 3%, at $ 4,032 per million UK thermal units at 10:34 a.m.

the EDT (1434 GMT).

“The market is looking towards what could be a very hot end to the summer with cooling degree days.

it’s likely to go up a bit, ”said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

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Data provider Refinitiv projects US demand, including exports, to rise from an average of 91.2 bcfd

this week at 95.2 bcfd next week. But it is still slightly below last week’s 95.7 bcfd.

Flynn also expects US LNG exports to remain “excessively” strong and US supply to remain weak, leading to

a tight market this year, which should support prices.

The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants averaged 10.8 bcfd in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June.

but still below April’s record of 11.5 bcfd.

Refinitiv said average US production would remain unchanged at 92.2 billion cubic feet per day next week.

starting this week. That’s still well below the November monthly all-time high of 95.4 bcfd.

With European gas prices at record levels and Asian gas trading close to $ 15 per mmBtu,

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Analysts expect US LNG exports to remain high this year.

Global gas benchmark futures ($ per mmBtu) Current day before this previous month Five years

Day Last Year Year Average

Average (2016-2020)

2020

Henry Hub 4.036 4 2.13 2.66

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 14.52 13.96 3.24 5.19

Japan Korea Scoreboard (JKM) 14.76 15.25 4.22 6.49

Refinitive Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total

(TDD) Degree days

Total two-week forecast Current day before Previous year 10 years 30-year rule

Day rule

US GFS hard drives 2 2 2 4 4

US ITC CDD 228219214200197

US ITC TDD 230221216204201

US Refining Weekly GFS Supply and Demand

Forecasts

Previous week Current Next week This week Five years

Average of the week of last year for

Month

US supply (Bcfd)

United States Low 48 Dry production 91.9 92.2 92.2

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United States imports from Canada 7.2 7.0 7.0

US LNG imports 0 0 0

Total US supply 99.2 99.2 99.2

US demand (Bcfd)

Exports from the United States to Canada 2.1 2.2 2.2

Exports from the United States to Mexico 6.5 6.2 6.5

US LNG exports 10.8 10.6 10.7

US Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.4

US Residential 3.5 3.5 3.6

US power plant 40.9 36.8 40.0

US Industry 20.8 20.9 21.0

US vegetable fuel 4.5 4.6 4.6

US Pipeline Distribution 2.0 1.9 2.0

US Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total US consumption 76.3 72.2 75.7

Total United States demand 95.7 91.2 95.2

SNL Overnight US Natural Gas Prices ($ Per mmBtu)

Hub current day before

Day

Henry Hub 3.94 4.03

Transco Z6 New York 2.9 2.87

PG&E Citygate 5.41 5.48

Dominion South 2.86 2.76

Chicago Citygate 3.7 3.79

Algonquin citygate 3 2.83

SoCal Citygate 7.61 7.75

Waha Hub 3.59 3.84

SNL US Power Overnight Pricing ($ per

megawatt hour)

Hub current day before

Day

New England 30.5 38

PJM West 29.5 33.25

Ercot north 69.75 80

Mid C 145 595

Green stick 96.27 177.5

SP-15 107.25 120

(Report from Nakul Iyer in Bangalore

Edited by Nick Zieminski)

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In-depth reports on the economics of innovation from The Logic, presented in association with the Financial Post.

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