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Variants lurk prospects for global growth recovery: green week ahead

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Variants lurk prospects for global growth recovery: green week ahead

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(Bloomberg) – Any optimism about global economic growth from the Group of 20 finance chiefs this week is likely to be expressed with crossed fingers that a rapidly evolving virus may be kept at bay.

With the second half of 2021 underway, the meeting in Venice provides a key moment for finance ministers and central bank governors to assess the global rebound, likely resulting in a more confident display of confidence than they offered. in April. Back then, they only saw an “uneven” and “fragile” recovery taking hold.

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But despite all the progress vaccines have brought, concern about relapses in the pandemic remains. On Friday, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, lamented the uncertainty posed by the so-called most transmissible delta variant, a threat that the European Commission can recognize in the quarterly forecasts to be released this week.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, warned that the new tensions remain a risk for the economy. Health officials estimate that the delta variant may overshadow other mutations in the US in a few weeks.

These concerns persist elsewhere in the G-20. In Australia, half the population was locked out last week, while South Korea’s coronavirus cases hit a six-month high, and India hit a grim tally of 400,000 deaths.

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If officials long for a sign of hope amid such setbacks, the Venice event offers them comfort in the symbolism of improvement displayed by the meeting itself. In fact, the ministers will meet in person for the first time since February last year. Since then, the start of the pandemic had forced all those meetings to resort to video.

Elsewhere in the world economy, central bankers in Israel, Poland, and Australia set rates and the ECB and Fed publish the minutes of their most recent monetary policy meetings.

Click here to see what happened last week and below is our summary of what lies ahead in the global economy.

USA and Canada

In the US, investors will be waiting for the minutes of the Fed meeting in June, to be released on Wednesday, to get more details on its debate on inflation, abatement and reduction of support for the economy. Economic data in the spotlight during the holiday shortened business week includes reports on May job openings and service activity.

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In Canada, employment data for June Friday will show how employment is rebounding from a two-month drop as the nation emerges from a third wave of Covid-19.

To learn more, read the full Bloomberg Economics week for the US.

Asia

The Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on Tuesday whether to roll over its yield target to the November 2024 bond and whether to undertake a third round of bond buying, or a modified version, when the current tranche ends. The decision to postpone the expansion of one or both of them would be considered to set the stage for an eventual departure from the current crisis monetary scenarios.

Japan will release household spending figures that should shed more light on how consumption remained in the middle of the virus emergency restrictions. Salary data released the same day will show whether the wage recovery can offer additional support to consumers and ensure the economy avoids a double dip recession.

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Malaysia sets interest rates on Thursday and China will release factory and consumer inflation data on Friday.

To learn more, read the full Bloomberg Economics week for Asia.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

Western Europe will be relatively quiet for economic news in the coming days, aside from the European Commission forecasts and German industrial production, both set for Wednesday, and the G20 meeting in Venice later this week.

At an event associated with that meeting, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will appear on a panel discussion with Lagarde on digitization and intangibles.

A monthly reading of UK GDP on Friday is scheduled to show that the economy took another big step towards its pre-pandemic level in May after the indoor hospitality and recreation sector opened in England.

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In other parts of the region, various central banks must make decisions about interest rates, all of which can be analyzed for signs of how these institutions are dealing with growing global concerns about inflation.

Within Eastern Europe, monetary officials will meet to make decisions in Romania on Wednesday and in Poland and Serbia on Thursday. All are expected to keep loan costs unchanged.

The Bank of Israel is also expected to keep rates on hold Monday at 0.1%, but may indicate a possible adjustment in the future after a more optimistic outlook on the country’s economic recovery from Governor Amir Yaron.

Turkish inflation likely accelerated to nearly 17% in June, figures for Monday are expected to show, a 20th consecutive month of double-digit price increases.

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Wednesday’s data will likely show that Mauritius inflation remained below the central bank’s forecast of 3% for 2021 in June. That may give lawmakers room to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low to support the private sector’s recovery from a second coronavirus lockdown.

To learn more, read the full Bloomberg Economics week for EMEA

Latin America

On Wednesday, rising interest rates and a still violent pandemic in Brazil may benefit from increased confidence and a new round of modest cash donations to keep May’s retail sales figures just below April’s.

Central bankers in Brazil, Mexico and Chile began to advise moderation in the face of rising consumer prices in 2021. Six months later, inflation above target has Brazil in an aggressive tightening cycle, last month Mexico was It was wrong to increase borrowing costs for the first time since 2018, and Chile has signaled that it is ready to start climbing.

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In June data released Thursday, expect inflation to break above the ceiling of Chile’s target range and for readings in Brazil and Mexico to approach current levels, both well above the target.

Later on Thursday, Banco de México publishes the minutes of its June decision followed by the monthly meeting of Peru’s central bank, here complicated by the sharp rise in inflation last month.

Finally, Argentina’s central bank publishes its highly anticipated monthly survey of economists and analysts on key economic indicators.

To learn more, read the full Bloomberg Economics week for Latin America.

© 2021 Bloomberg LP

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