BoJo’s move could hurt conservatives more
The Deltapoll graphic above should be a warning to Mr. Johnson about the dangers to his party of going ahead with voter identification. It was published 2 years ago and shows the constituency relationship between not having a passport and permission to vote. As can be seen, there is a correlation: the lower the proportion of passports in a constituency, the greater the probability that they will vote to Leave.
I have not been able to find similar data for drivers license holders, but I am sure it would be a similar picture. We know that about 50% of people with driver’s licenses do not renew when they reach 70, and veterans are much more likely to be conservative.
We also know from poll after poll that the section of the electorate that supports the exit is the main source of conservative votes. The last YouGov has the franchise voting segment going 70% for the Tories with 13% for Labor and 3% for LD.
It has been estimated that approximately one in six British adults does not have a passport and approximately one in four does not have a driver’s license. Yes, special arrangements can be made to provide some form of identification, but putting another impediment to these sections of the electorate will surely affect their likelihood of voting.
Voter ID is a solution looking for a problem and there is no indication that it can solve anything. In GE2019 there was less than one case of potential spoofing per constituency, probably due to other errors.