Will Paterson be the trigger for the Tories to lose their lead in the polls? – policybetting.com


As we all know, the Tories, aside from just two polls, have been ahead in every poll since the spring, when the so-called vaccination rebound was occurring. Could this all end following BoJo’s decision to thwart action against what appears to be a clear case of paid lobbying?

Much depends on how this is reported in the media and no doubt there is nervousness about how national newspapers will treat it.

We have the experience of Cummings’ trip to Barnard Castle which broke the block as a precedent. Here, in late May and early June 2020, the Conservatives maintained their lead in the polls, but it was significantly reduced. Until this was reported, it had been in double digits across the board. So it slipped into single figures and hit 2%.

There is no betting market at the moment, but if there was, I would place a bet on a longer-than-even-equal Labor disagreement advantage.

Mike Smithson


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