JERUSALEM — Israeli tanks that rolled into the outskirts of Rafah early Tuesday stoked global fears that an offensive on Gaza’s southernmost city could endanger more than a million Palestinian civilians sheltering there.
The ground attack dashed hopes for an immediate ceasefire agreement that the United States, Egypt and Qatar have been pushing for months. Hours before the attack began, Hamas accepted a ceasefire proposal that the Israeli government quickly rejected.
Around 1.3 million Palestinians (more than half of Gaza’s population) are crowded into Rafah and face the prospect of having to evacuate without a good plan for where to find suitable shelter.
This is what we know so far about the operation and the evacuation plan.
Now that Israel has begun ordering Palestinians to evacuate parts of Rafah, it is sending them to a piece of land whose current inhabitants say is little more than a makeshift camp in squalid conditions.
On Monday, Israel issued a warning to evacuate an area east of Rafah where approximately 100,000 Palestinians are sheltering. Israel encouraged evacuees to move to Muwasi, an Israeli-declared safe zone that it says has been expanded and will be equipped with field hospitals, shelter materials and other facilities. The United Nations and aid organizations say Muwasi is not prepared to house the tens of thousands who could seek refuge there.
Muwasi stretches approximately 8 kilometers (5 miles) along the coast from Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah, to its other major southern city, Khan Younis.
Israel unilaterally declared the area a “humanitarian zone” at the start of the war, telling residents they would be safe there. According to the UN Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA, Muwasi is now home to more than 450,000 displaced Palestinians, including many who arrived in recent months as Israel has stepped up its ground offensive in central and southern Gaza.
An Associated Press journalist saw dozens of Palestinians arriving north of Muwasi on Monday. Although there were dozens of empty tents nearby, there were few signs that large-scale preparations were being made to accommodate the expected large influx of evacuees. Other Palestinians in Rafah, even those outside the evacuation zone, have decided to head to central Gaza or Khan Younis instead of Muwasi.
UNRWA did not assist in preparation efforts in Muwasi, as it did not want to attract people to move to an area that is not prepared to accept them, said Scott Anderson, the agency’s director in Gaza. However, UNRWA will provide help to new evacuees arriving there in the future, he said.
Residents say toilets are scarce and there is little running water in Muwasi. Many relieve themselves in boarded-up holes dug outside their tents to avoid long lines at public latrines and maintain privacy. Palestinians say they sometimes wait hours to collect drinking water from tanker trucks that deliver it to various locations in the camp.
Several stalls in the camp sell tent-building equipment, canned food and basic vegetables such as tomatoes and potatoes at inflated prices. A kilogram (about 2 pounds) of potatoes costs about $6, a high price for the vast majority of people.
Building a large tent out of wood and nylon costs about $500, people there said, while buying a ready-made version costs about twice as much.
“The Al-Mawasi area is overpopulated with more than 400,000 people,” UNRWA Commissioner General Philippe Lazzarini posted on X. “It does not have facilities to accommodate more people.” & “It is no safer than other parts of Gaza.”
UN officials say an attack on Rafah will collapse the aid operation keeping people alive across the Gaza Strip and potentially push Palestinians into further famine and mass death.
The Rafah crossing has a main route for aid entry into the besieged enclave and the only exit for those who may flee to Egypt. Earlier Tuesday, Israel took control of the Gaza side of the crossing, saying militants had organized attacks from the area.
Both Rafah and Kerem Shalom, the other main aid entry point, have been closed since a Hamas mortar attack killed four Israeli soldiers. Although smaller entry points are still operating, the closure is a blow to efforts to maintain the flow of food, medicine and other supplies that keep Gaza’s population alive.
Some entry points have opened in the north and the United States has promised that a port will be ready within weeks to bring in supplies by sea. Getting aid to Gaza through Rafah would likely be impossible during an invasion.
Since Israel declared war in response to the deadly Hamas cross-border attack on October 1. On January 7, Netanyahu said a central goal is to destroy its military capabilities.
Israel says Rafah is the last major Hamas stronghold in Gaza, after operations elsewhere dismantled 18 of the militant group’s 24 battalions, according to the military. But even in northern Gaza, the first target of the offensive, Hamas has regrouped in some areas and has continued to launch attacks.
Israel says Hamas has four battalions in Rafah and must send ground forces to overwhelm them. Some high-ranking militants could also be hiding in the city.
Hamas continues to launch projectiles from Rafah. Hamas again launched half a dozen mortars and rockets toward Kerem Shalom on Tuesday.
Israeli attacks continued throughout Tuesday in Rafah, mainly in the eastern section of the city. Columns of thick black smoke rose on the horizon after several of the attacks.
The Egyptian Foreign Ministry stated on Tuesday that the “dangerous escalation threatens the lives of more than a million Palestinians who mainly depend on this crossing, as it is the main lifeline of the Gaza Strip,” referring to the Rafah crossing. .
Egypt, a strategic partner of Israel, has said that an Israeli military takeover of the Gaza-Egypt border – which is supposed to be demilitarized – or any move to push the Palestinians towards Egypt would threaten its four-decade peace deal with Israel.
The United States has urged Israel not to carry out the operation without a “credible” plan to evacuate civilians and says it has yet to see one. The United States previously said Israel should use targeted operations inside Rafah without a major ground attack.
“The president does not want to see operations in Rafah that put more than a million people seeking refuge there at greater risk,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said Monday.
The current operation, which is more limited in scope, could be a tactic by Netanyahu to appease his government’s ultranationalist and conservative religious partners. They have threatened to withdraw from the coalition if he signs a ceasefire agreement without an operation in Rafah.
Netanyahu’s critics say he is more concerned about keeping his government intact and staying in power than the national interest, a charge he denies.
One of his coalition members, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has said that agreeing to a ceasefire deal without an operation in Rafah would be tantamount to Israel “raising a white flag” and handing victory to Hamas.
Now that the Rafah operation has begun, Netanyahu risks further isolating Israel and alienating its biggest ally, the United States.
His open refusal to be swayed by global pressure and his promises to launch the operation could be aimed at placating his political allies even as an Israeli negotiating team was in Egypt trying to revive the possibility of a ceasefire.