Vilnius, Lithuania — Lithuania will hold a presidential election on Sunday at a time when Russian battlefield advances in Ukraine are fueling heightened fears across Europe about Moscow’s intentions, but particularly in the strategically important Baltic region.
The popular incumbent, Gitanas Nausėda, is the favorite to win another five-year term. But there are eight candidates in total, making it unlikely that he or any other candidate will be able to get the 50% of the votes needed to win outright on Sunday. In that case, a second round would be held two weeks later, on May 26.
The president’s main tasks in Lithuania’s political system are to oversee foreign and security policy and act as supreme commander of the armed forces. Those duties and the nation’s strategic location along NATO’s eastern flank amid a broader geopolitical standoff between Russia and the West add weight to the role despite Lithuania’s relatively small size.
There is great concern in Lithuania, and in neighboring Latvia and Estonia, about Russia’s push in Ukraine. The three Baltic states declared their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union and took a decisive course westward, joining both the European Union and NATO.
Nausėda, a moderate conservative who turns 60 a week after Sunday’s election, has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, a position shared by most of the political spectrum. During his tenure, Lithuania has also provided refuge to many who have fled an authoritarian crackdown in neighboring Belarus and further repression in Russia.
Nausėda, a former banker who entered politics with his successful presidential bid in 2019, is seen as the “safe choice for voters of almost all ideological stripes,” said Tomas Janeliūnas, an analyst at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at the Vilnius University.
Polls show that his main opponents are Ignas Vėgėlė, a populist lawyer, who is in second place according to the latest opinion polls, and Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, who is in third place in the polls.
Not all voters see Nausėda as the safest choice.
Asta Valanciene, a teacher from Vilnius, said she would vote for Šimonytė because the prime minister has more experience in politics than newcomer Nausėda.
“I would rather give him a chance than see another five years of this random guy in office. “I just trust the professionals,” Valanciene said.
Šimonytė, a former finance minister, became prime minister in 2020 after an unsuccessful presidential bid in 2019, in which Nausėda won that election with 66% of the vote in the second round.
Vėgėlė gained popularity among some Lithuanians during the COVID-19 pandemic by harshly criticizing the current government’s lockdown and vaccination policies.
A victory for Vėgėlė in second place could propel him into a prominent role in national politics ahead of Lithuania’s parliamentary elections this fall, and would be a blow to the prime minister, said Rima Urbonaitė, a political analyst at Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius.
“For first place, everything is almost clear, but it is difficult to say who else will go to the second round. Nausėda’s chances of re-election are high. However, this time the second place becomes very significant,” said Urbonaitė.
While both Nausėda and Šimonytė are strong advocates of increased military spending and big supporters of kyiv, several other candidates see aid to Ukraine as an invitation for Russia to invade Lithuania.
Vėgėlė’s comments on the issue of aid to Ukraine have at times been vague, and he has mocked those who advocate increasing defense spending to 4% of gross domestic product, double NATO’s target.
A referendum is also on the ballot Sunday. He questions whether the Constitution should be amended to allow dual citizenship for hundreds of thousands of Lithuanians living abroad.
Lithuanian citizens who adopt another nationality currently must renounce their Lithuanian citizenship, creating vulnerabilities for a nation whose population has fallen from 3.5 million in 1990 to 2.8 million today.
If approved, parliament could amend the 1992 Constitution so that people who acquired Lithuanian citizenship by birth can retain it if they acquire citizenship of another “Lithuanian-friendly” country.
A similar attempt to change the fundamental law failed in 2019 because turnout was less than the 50% of registered voters required to be valid.