More than half of the world’s population could be at risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue by the end of the century, scientists have warned.
Experts said mosquito-borne outbreaks, driven by global warming, will spread to parts of northern Europe and other regions of the world in the coming decades.
In the UK, figures published by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) show imported products. malaria Last year, cases surpassed 2,000 for the first time in more than 20 years.
It said 2,004 cases of malaria were confirmed in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in 2023 after travel abroad, compared to 1,369 in 2022.
The increase, according to the UKHSA, is linked to the resurgence of malaria in many countries and an increase in foreign travel following the lifting of pandemic restrictions.
Meanwhile, globally, the number of dengue cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) has increased tenfold over the past two decades, from 500,000 in 2000 to more than five million in 2019.
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The ‘tiger mosquito’ arrives in the United Kingdom
Dengue-carrying mosquitoes have invaded 13 European countries since 2000, and 2023 will see a local spread of the disease in France, Italy and Spain.
Rachel Lowe, professor at the Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies in Spain, said: “Global warming due to climate change means that disease vectors that transmit and spread malaria and dengue may find a home in more regions, with outbreaks occurring in areas where people are likely to be immunologically naïve and public health systems unprepared.
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“The stark reality is that longer warm seasons will widen the seasonal window for the spread of mosquito-borne diseases and favor outbreaks that are increasingly more frequent and increasingly complex to address.”
The researchers said that if global warming can be limited to 1°C, the population at risk of malaria and dengue could increase by an additional 2.4 billion people by 2100, compared with the period 1970-1999.
But they predict that if the current trajectory of carbon emissions and population growth continues, 4.7 billion people could be affected by dengue and malaria by the end of the century.
Professor Lowe added: “We must anticipate outbreaks and act to intervene early to prevent disease occurring in the first place.”
Researchers are now developing ways to predict when and where epidemics might occur using data from disease surveillance and climate change.
The findings were presented at the ESCMID Global Congress in Barcelona, Spain.