The analysis indicates that Israel has deployed more than 800 military vehicles at two bases. At least 120 vehicles are parked on the northern border of the Gaza Strip and 700 in the Negev desert to the south.
Satellite images also reveal that Israel has established nine military posts on the outskirts of the enclave. Three were built in November and December 2023 and six were installed between January and March of this year. The outposts house soldiers, operational command centers and military vehicles.
The findings indicate that Israel plans to continue its war against Gaza, which was launched after Hamas’ surprise attack on Israeli communities and military outposts on October 7, despite global condemnation.
Israel’s war has killed nearly 35,000 Palestinians in Gaza, displaced most of the population and destroyed 62 percent of all homes.
According to Israeli officials, about 1,200 people were killed in the October 7 Hamas attack and about 250 were taken captive.
Al Jazeera satellite analysis supports the view of several experts who say that Israel will devote most of its military resources to its campaign in Gaza, despite having withdrawn most of its forces from the enclave in recent weeks.
“My general feeling is that the (Israeli) security establishment would be more likely to prioritize taking down Gaza and then move on to other threats, whether (Lebanese group) Hezbollah or Iran,” said Hugh Lovatt, an Israel expert. Palestine with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
On April 18, American and Israeli officials met to discuss a possible operation in Rafah, a city on the border with Egypt that currently provides relative security to more than 1.4 million displaced Palestinians within the enclave.
The meeting followed rumors that the United States would support a full-scale invasion of Rafah – having previously expressed public reservations – in exchange for assurances that Israel would not escalate its tit-for-tat attacks with Iran.
U.S. officials have denied those reports, but Israel has more leverage to attack Rafah by raising the specter of regional escalation, according to Omar Rahman, an Israel-Palestine expert at the Qatar-based Middle East Global Affairs Council.
“The Israelis have made an art form out of getting a price for doing something or not doing something, whether they really intended to do it or not,” he told Al Jazeera.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will also try to take advantage of Iran’s attack on Israel to consolidate his domestic position, experts say.
On April 14, Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for an Israeli attack on its consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus.
Israel’s recent attacks and warnings in Gaza have raised fears of a major offensive in Rafah.
Over the weekend, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 24 people, including 16 children, in the southern city, Palestinian health officials said.
Mairav Zonszein, an Israel-Palestine expert for the Belgium-based International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that Israel had always planned to invade Rafah, regardless of US backing for its operations.
He added that Netanyahu has a habit of fostering the false belief that he will do nothing to secure influence or support on other issues, citing the prime minister’s previous agreement to suspend the de facto annexation of the occupied West Bank in exchange for signing peace agreements with several Arab governments.
“Israel was still annexing (the West Bank) and is still doing so, but it got the deals,” Zonszein continued, stating: “For the most part, Israel just does what it wants and (US President) Biden has fallen or has fallen”. “Because of that or he’s just not up to the task of (pressuring Israel) not to do things.”
Eyal Lurie-Pardes, an Israeli-Palestinian expert at the US-based Middle East Institute, believes Netanyahu will not be deterred from invading Rafah and that the operation will come sooner rather than later, according to Al Jazeera satellite analysis.
“Netanyahu will not give up this position – or influence – that he has right now (to go to Rafah).”