LONDON– LONDON (AP) — Scotland’s leader faces a week of high-stakes talks to save his job and reinvigorate the country’s independence movement after he torpedoed a coalition with the Green Party by abandoning a climate change goal. .
First Minister Humza Yousaf, whose Scottish National Party has been weakened by a campaign finance scandal and divisions over transgender rights, may have to offer concessions to a breakaway nationalist party with just one seat in the Scottish parliament if he wants. avoid early elections. .
The unrest will culminate this week when Scottish lawmakers vote on no-confidence motions against Yousaf and his government. It all started when he abandoned the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 75% by 2030, then ended a coalition deal with the Greens and unceremoniously expelled the party’s two representatives from his cabinet.
“Wounded egos have destroyed countries before, so it’s not exactly surprising that they’re currently leading to the mess we’re in,” Murray Pittock, an expert on Scottish nationalism at the University of Glasgow, told The Associated Press. “And you cannot hurt people’s egos more than by expelling them directly from their ministerial positions without prior notice and with their entire party with them.”
The debacle in Scotland adds to the febrile political climate in the UK generally, where concerns over immigration, healthcare and government spending have undermined support for the ruling Conservative Party.
The Conservatives and the main opposition Labor Party have each proposed a motion of no confidence in Yousaf and his government as they seek to weaken the SNP ahead of UK-wide parliamentary elections expected to take place later this year. anus. On Thursday, England and Wales will hold local elections that are seen as a barometer of support for the government.
In an effort to save his government, Yousaf has written to all party leaders asking for separate meetings to discuss his concerns “in a hopefully constructive spirit.”
But tight electoral calculations in Scotland mean Yousaf’s fate depends on the upstart Alba Party, which has just one seat in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has 63 of the 128 MPs voting, leaving Yousaf one vote short of what he needs to achieve a victory.
Founded in 2021 by former SNP leader and First Minister Alex Salmond, Alba is considered the true voice of Scottish independence. The only Alba member in the Scottish Parliament is Ash Regan, who opposed Yousaf in the last SNP leadership election before defecting to Alba.
As the price for her support for the government, Alba demands that Yousaf put independence at the top of her agenda, move away from divisive “identity politics” and focus on issues such as employment, education and investment in industry. Scottish.
Salmond said on Sunday he hoped for a “positive outcome” from the talks but that Alba leaders would meet to prepare for an election if things did not work out.
“Obviously we have to prepare for things not to work out, in which case there could be an election in Scotland,” he told the BBC.
Alba’s central role in the crisis is a symbol of the disarray facing Scotland’s independence movement a decade after voters rejected the SNP’s plan to damage ties with the United Kingdom.
Yousaf became leader of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland in March 2023, after former leader Nicola Sturgeon resigned, citing the toll more than eight years in office had taken on her.
Sturgeon’s resignation came amid a police investigation into allegations the party had misappropriated money donated to fund a second independence referendum.
Sturgeon was questioned and released without charge last June. Her husband, former SNP treasurer Peter Murrell, was accused of embezzlement earlier this month. Both deny wrongdoing in the case.
Support for the SNP also fell after the party backed legislation to make it easier for people to change their gender and implemented a hate crime law that made transgender identity a protected characteristic, despite the same protections not being granted. to all women.
Then came Yousaf’s decision to scrap the 2030 greenhouse gas reduction target.
Although he said Scotland would still achieve its net-zero carbon emissions target by 2045, the decision sparked tensions with its coalition partners. The Green Party initially backed the change, but party leaders said they would poll their members at large and change course if necessary.
Last Thursday, Yousaf decided to abruptly end the coalition.
The Labor Party is the biggest beneficiary of the disputes within the SNP, because both parties support left-wing policies on issues such as workers’ rights and public spending. This has huge implications for this year’s general election, as Labor attempts to wrest control of the UK Parliament from the Conservatives.
The Labor vote in Scotland fell to 18.6% in the 2019 general election from 45.6% in 1997. During the same period, support for the SNP jumped to 45% from 22.1%. Currently, the Labor Party has just one member of the Scottish Parliament, compared to 43 for the SNP.
An early election in Scotland could help Labor build momentum for its general election campaign across the UK, Pittock said.
“The flip side of the bigger picture is that pragmatism is really important in politics,” Pittock said. “Populism, virtual signs, ideology, ideologically driven legislation – all of these things have a real price, and Scotland is currently paying for it.”
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