Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.
Mark Jacob/”Stop the Presses” on Substack:
Why headlines matter and news outlets fail at them
Out of laziness or fear, some media think small with the big type
David Pecker, the opening witness in Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, explained his top priority when he ran the National Enquirer:
“The only thing that is important is the cover of the magazine.”
Which means the most prominent headlines and photos.
Pecker understands the importance of headlines. Donald Trump does too. That’s why Trump arranged for Pecker’s slimy rag to write headlines during the 2016 campaign such as:
“CRUZ’S 5 SECRET MISTRESSES!”
(with a subhead reading “IT’S OVER FOR PERVY TED”)
and
“HILLARY: 6 MONTHS TO LIVE!”
The dubious claims behind the headlines didn’t matter. The headlines mattered.
Josh Marshall/Talking Points Memo:
NY Judge Holds Trump In Contempt For Attacking Witnesses, Threatens Jail
Merchan said in an order released Tuesday morning that if Trump continued to violate the judge’s orders, he would “impose incarceratory punishment.”
The threat came as Merchan held Trump in contempt of court, fining him $1,000 per statement for nine social media posts that attacked witnesses in the case.
It adds up to a total fine of $9,000 for the posts, which included attacks on Michael Cohen and a post boosting a statement by Fox News host Jesse Watters that claimed jurors in the case were biased.
Merchan made a point in the contempt order of leaving open the possibility that he could send Trump to jail for continuing to violate the order. New York state law limits him to fining Trump $1,000 per violation; Merchan wrote that such a small monetary amount “will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine.”
Bill Scher/Washington Monthly:
Biden’s Clearest Electoral College Path
The President is running stronger in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin than Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
While all of us at the Washington Monthly try to protect ourselves from Mad Poll DiseaseI still regularly pore through general election poll numbers to see if we can detect interesting developments.
And I do think we’re seeing some materialize over the last few weeks.
First:
Joe Biden’s clearest path to 270 Electoral College votes is by winning the Rust Belt swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin along with Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, which encompasses urban Omaha.
Adding those to the safely blue states yields a 270-268 Biden win.
Yes, Some Republicans in Nebraska are pushing to end the practice of awarding Electoral College votes by district, so Biden can’t win NE-02 a second time.
But if that happened, Maine—which also awards Electoral College votes by district, and where Donald Trump has reliably won the rural ME-02—would probably do the same, and it would be an Electoral College wash.
Second:
Trial heat data in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is roughly tracking national trial heat data.
That’s a campaign’s job, to let voters know what the incumbent candidate has done. And they will.
Sahil Kapoor/NBC:
Trump says Republicans always wanted to leave abortion law to states. That’s false.
Republicans have consistently pushed for national restrictions on abortion, including former President Donald Trump himself. The 2024 election could give them the opportunity
Donald Trump is playing down the prospect of nationwide abortion restrictionsfalsely saying Republicans have long sought to leave abortion law to the states.
“Sending this Issue back to the States was the Policy of the Republican Party and Conservatives for over 50 years, due to States’ Rights and 10th Amendment, and only happened because of the Justices I proudly Nominated and got Confirmed,” Trump wrote on social media. It was one of many posts and statements in which he has made that claim amid national backlash to the ruling the Supreme Court he built issued to end federal abortion rights in 2022 and a recent, unpopular Alabama court decision that embryos are children.
Trump’s latest claim is belied by a long history of his party’s fighting to restrict abortion nationally.
Well, liars lie. And that’s another campaign ad.
Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:
The Voters Most Likely to Abandon Trump
A new poll shows the fragility of Trumps’ coalition
The third week of Donald Trump’s trial in Manhattan is set to begin. The legal experts who understand the ins and outs of Trump’s various trials believe that the testimony of David Pecker, the National Enquirer publisher, was very damaging to Trump’s flimsy defense of his obvious crimes. Because I never went to law school (and you don’t subscribe to this newsletter for legal analysis), I am focused on the politics of the trial. There are questions about how photos of Trump at the defense table affect his public image, whether the revelations are turning off persuadable voters, and the cost of being trapped in a courtroom instead of campaigning in the battleground states. And then, of course, there is the ultimate question of what impact a conviction would have on the election. To that end, CNN released a poll late last week that offered some very interesting details on the voters who could abandon Trump if convicted. The results are fascinating and provide optimism for Democrats even if Trump is acquitted in the case.
Andrew Egger/The Bulwark:
Hakeem Jeffries’s Mike Johnson Bear Hug
(Rep. Marjorie Taylor) Greene went predictably berserk: “Everyday, I fight the Democrat agenda destroying America and I fight for an America First Republican agenda,” she tweeted. “Mike Johnson is officially the Democrat Speaker of the House. Here is their official endorsement of his Speakership. What slimy back room deal did Johnson make for the Democrats’ support?”
She went on to call for Johnson to resign and insisted she will still force a (now doomed) vote to take his gavel: “If the Democrats want to elect him Speaker (and some Republicans want to support the Democrats’ chosen Speaker), I’ll give them the chance to do it . . . Americans deserve to see the Uniparty on full display.”
Democrats will be doing the right thing if they shield Johnson from Greene’s burn-it-all-down attacks. But here’s the odd thing: Every indication has been that Johnson was already outflanking Greene even among Republicans.
Brian Beutler/”Off Message” on Substack:
Are Democrats (Finally) Breaking Up With The Mainstream Media?
Years of frustration have begun to boil over, but with few alternative journalism institutions to turn to, Democrats have turned instead to celebrity interviewers.I want to zoom in on something President Biden said during his remarks at the White House Correspondents Dinner on Saturday, which for reasons that will be obvious, represents a departure from the normal timbre of the event.
(T)he most urgent question of our time is whether democracy is still the sacred cause of America. That is the question the American people must answer this year. And you, the free press, play a critical role in making sure the American people have the information they need to make an informed decision.
The defeated former President has made no secret of his attack on our democracy. He has said he wants to be a “dictator on day one,” and so much more.
He tells supporters he is their “revenge” and “retribution.” When in God’s name have you heard another president say something like that? And he promised a “bloodbath” when he loses again. We have to take this seriously.
Eight years ago, you could have written it off as just Trump talk. But no longer. Not after January 6th.
I’m sincerely not asking of you to take sides but asking you to rise up to the seriousness of the moment; move past the horse-race numbers and the gotcha moments and the distractions, the sideshows that have come to dominate and sensationalize our politics; and focus on what’s actually at stake…. Every single one of us has…a serious role to play in making sure democracy endures—American democracy. I have my role, but, with all due respect, so do you.
Emphasis added. No punchline omitted.
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From Cliff Schecter: