Ukraine is soon expected to get its hands on the most powerful long-range weapons systems delivered by the United States during the war with Russia to date, thanks to a requirement of the massive national security aid package enacted Wednesday.
The US Senate voted Tuesday to approve the package approved by the House of Representatives last weekend that includes $61 billion for Ukraine, finally unlocking a new round of military aid after months of delay.
The Ukraine aid bill includes a requirement that President Joe Biden approve the transfer of military long-range tactical missile systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine “as soon as practicable” after signing the aid into law.
The weapons, long sought by both Ukraine and Republican defense hawks, will further enable the Ukrainians to attack Russian targets, a tactic once considered an unnecessary escalation but which has become more common in recent months.
“What we’ve seen over the last two years is… there’s been kind of a slow acceptance of whether we back Ukraine just to survive, or we back Ukraine to win.” said Colin Robertson, vice-president of the Canadian Institute of Global Affairs and former Canadian diplomat to the United States.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that Biden assured him in a phone call that day that U.S. aid will include long-range and artillery capabilities. He later posted on social media that “everything has been decided in the ATACMS negotiations for Ukraine.”
The White House and Pentagon have so far declined to say whether they will send long-range weapons once the relief bill is signed. But officials have said they are committed to giving Ukraine what it needs as quickly as possible to push back an invading Russia, which is currently outmanning and outgunning the Ukrainians.
“They are under pressure right now, literally and figuratively,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters aboard Air Force One on Tuesday.
Biden told reporters after signing the bill Wednesday morning that weapons deliveries to Ukraine will begin in “the next few hours” and will include “air defense munitions, artillery, rocket systems and armored vehicles.” He didn’t mention long-range weapons.
Why are long range weapons important?
During the first months of the war, the United States and its Western allies hesitated to provide long-range weapons to Ukraine for fear that Russia would see it as an escalation by NATO, fearful of expanding the war.
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That slowly began to change: The United States first provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which Ukrainian soldiers have called a “game changer,” followed by air defense systems that allowed Ukraine to shoot down and repel Russian missile attacks.
Both systems helped Ukraine push back the Russians to their occupied territories in eastern Donbas.
Soon, Ukraine was arguing for the need for long-range missiles to counterattack and cripple the Russian fleet and military depots, including military and infrastructure targets in Russian-occupied Crimea.
While the Biden administration continued to fear escalation with Russia, European allies began heeding the call last year.
The UK started shipping its Storm Shadow air-launched precision-guided cruise missiles in May 2023, followed by France sending its version of the missiles, known as SCALP. Both systems have a range of about 240 kilometers.
kyiv has since credited Storm Shadow for successful attacks on Russian warships, submarines and military command centers in its occupied territories, including Crimea. The United Kingdom announced Tuesday that it will send more Storm Shadow missiles.
In October 2023, The United States quietly began supplying a shorter-range version. of ATACMS to Ukraine, which U.S. officials once again said was an effort to minimize escalation. But the United States did not publicly confirm the delivery for months. Instead, Zelenskyy announced at the time that the systems had been delivered and “executed very precisely” on the battlefield against Russia.
While some of the long-range weapons can reach up to about 300 kilometers, those sent to Ukraine last fall have a shorter range (U.S. officials privately told The Associated Press that they travel up to 100 miles) and carry cluster munitions, which, when fired, open into the air and release hundreds of mini-bombs instead of a single warhead.
Unlike the Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles, the long-range ATACMS fires ballistic missiles that do not follow a straight flight path, making them difficult or impossible to take down with traditional air defense systems.
That makes the weapons a highly sought-after system despite the continued delivery of European systems.
Republicans in Congress who support US aid to Ukraine, including leader Mitch McConnell, have said that the Biden administration could have ensured an early victory for Ukraine by sending long-range ATACMS immediately. They also reject concerns about escalation, arguing that Ukraine has the right to fight back against increasingly devastating Russian missile and drone attacks.
“They are being attacked by Russia from Russian territory,” said Kurt Volker, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis who served as a U.S. diplomat to NATO and Ukraine under the administrations of George W. Bush and Donald Trump, respectively.
“Telling Ukrainians that they should not hit back at the Russian forces that are attacking them is a meaningless position.”
The Ukraine aid bill includes a stipulation that Biden could withhold the transfer of ATACMS to Ukraine if he determines it “would be detrimental to the national security interests of the United States” and notify Congress of his decision and reasoning.
Analysts say that despite growing calls from Ukraine supporters to supply the missiles, questions remain about whether Ukraine will use them in a way that increases the risks of war.
Kyiv has already embarked on a controversial campaign of drone strikes against oil and energy facilities inside mainland Russia, including an attack in Tatarstan province earlier this month that marked Ukraine’s deepest attack inside Russian territory since the war began. It has also continued its attacks against the Russian fleet in the Black Sea.
“I guess the question is, what kind of safeguards are they going to have in place so that Ukraine doesn’t use (ATACMS) against targets in Russia proper, rather than territory that the Russians have taken,” said Richard Shimooka, a senior Macdonald member. -Laurier Institute which focuses on defense policy.
Although Ukraine has so far demonstrated its accuracy in attacking Russian military targets, Shimooka continued: “What happens if they miss and hit a civilian target? What will you do next?
“I think that’s what still worries Americans.”
—with files from The Associated Press