At long last, the NFL Draft is almost upon us, with the first round set to begin Thursday at 8 p.m. ET.
Each year, we see a handful of notable prospects whom the “experts” consider to be a lock to go off the board early but end up falling to the second round. In 2023, Titans quarterback Will Levis — a second-round pick who was projected to be selected as high as fourth overall — endured the biggest draft-day slide.
Although there might not be a prospect in this year’s class whose stock drops as dramatically as Levis’ did, a few unexpected players will likely fall out of the first round. With that in mind, here are three projected first-rounders who could wake up Friday morning without an NFL home.
Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell | Texas
Mitchell is no stranger to making clutch and highlight-worthy plays, but he’s far from a perfect prospect, which could make him an afterthought in the first round, especially considering how highly regarded this year’s wideout class is.
Although the 6-foot-2, 205-pounder set career highs across the board in 2023, he wasn’t all that productive over his career, finishing with 93 receptions for 1,405 yards and 18 touchdown catches across three seasons.
As Pro Football Focus’ Jonathon Macri noted, Mitchell has ranked in the 13th percentile among wideout prospects since 2019 in career yards per route run with 1.68. It’s a particularly concerning statistic, as there hasn’t been a wide receiver selected in the first round since 2016 who posted a sub-2.00 career yards-per-route run total.
The Georgia transfer also isn’t a polished receiver, with NFL Media’s Lance Zierlein noting that Mitchell’s “route running currently lacks focus and consistency.” This could be partly due to the fact Mitchell didn’t start playing wide receiver until his junior year of high school — another factor teams might find concerning enough to not select him.
Quarterback Bo Nix | Oregon
The former Duck is in contention to be the fifth QB selected in the draft, having been linked to several QB-needy teams with little chance of landing a top prospect at the position. Nix makes sense for the Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings and Las Vegas Raiders to some degree, but selecting him in the first round would be a move that likely gets a general manager fired.
As the most experienced starting quarterback in college football history (61 career starts), Nix has given NFL teams all they need to know about him. But he doesn’t appear to be a future star. Even though he’s arguably the most accurate passer in the class, Nix doesn’t have particularly great arm strengthwhich will be an issue in the pros. And since he’s already 24, it’s hard to imagine there’s much, if any, room for improvement.
Even so, Nix’s floor is high enough to warrant a second-round pick, given that he’ll be a stop-gap option at best in the NFL.
Cornerback Nate Wiggins | Clemson
Due to the influx of talented wide receivers entering the NFL each year, cornerback is an important position to invest high draft capital in. However, while Wiggins — Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN’s 25th-ranked prospect — is a solid player who could ultimately enjoy a successful career, could he be one of this year’s surprising draft-day fallers?
Despite allowing just 18 receptions for 176 yards last season and clocking a 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, it’s impossible to overlook the questions regarding Wiggins’ frame and durability. Although his height (6-foot-2) is a plus, Wiggins is only 173 pounds, 20 pounds lighter than the average NFL cornerback.
Injuries have plagued Wiggins, who missed two games in 2023 with a hyperextended knee and suffered a hip flexor injury during his 40-yard dash attempt at the Combine, adding to concerns about whether his body is NFL-ready.
Additionally, Wiggins is a poor tackler, which might not be easy to correct at the next level. His 13.3% missed-tackle rate last season was the lowest of his career but higher than that of fellow projected first-round CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry of Alabama (8.1%) and Cooper DeJean or Iowa (12.2%).