Senior Israeli officials have been threatening a major military operation in and around the city of Rafah in southern Gaza for weeks.
On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned it could take place “imminently” as ceasefire talks continue with Hamas failed in Cairo.
Now they have taken a big step towards it.
It was the latest: Families flee Rafah as IDF orders evacuation of 100,000 people
On Monday morning, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement instructing the population of the southeast Loop move toward an “expanded humanitarian zone” to the north, centered around the city of Khan Younis and a coastal community called Al-Maws.
The IDF said it “includes field hospitals, tents and increased quantities of food, water, medicine and additional supplies.”
The claim will be met with skepticism by international aid agencies who have argued that the Israelis have not done enough to facilitate such aid.
The UN refugee agency in Gaza, UNRWA, immediately questioned the operation in X.
UNRWA said an offensive “would mean more civilian suffering and deaths” and that “the consequences would be devastating for 1.4 million people.”
The vast majority of people living in southern Gaza have already been displaced by fighting further north.
And at such a significant juncture, the Israelis are instructing them to return to areas that have already been severely damaged in this conflict.
Khan Younis was besieged by the IDF in January and many neighborhoods have been partially or completely destroyed.
However, there is no doubt about the Israelis’ intention.
Leaflets are currently being dropped in southeastern Gaza saying: “Anyone in the area is putting themselves and their families in danger. For your safety, evacuate immediately…”
With this operation, Israel would test the very limits of the support it receives from Western countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and members of the European Union.
Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that a raid on Rafah was a step too far, warning that the Israelis had yet to come up with “a clear and credible plan to protect civilians”.
Until it does, Blinken said Washington “cannot and will not support a major military operation” in the area.
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Now, Israel’s main ally and military backer will have to formulate a response that requires them to evaluate the nature and extent of this complicated relationship.
But it seems Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet have made a decision.